For the last five years, the car-buying market has worked against the buyer. In 2021 and 2022 there was no inventory, and dealerships charged over sticker because they could. That period is over. Heading into the end of 2026, manufacturers are spending more to move new cars than at any point since 2020, and our clients are seeing the strongest pricing we have negotiated in that time.
Interest rates are higher than they were five years ago, and that is the first thing most people mention. Based upon our experience, it is the wrong number to focus on. The discount on the car, and the programs behind it, now matter far more than the rate.
Key Takeaways: Year-End Car Pricing in 2026
- Manufacturer incentives are running about $3,574 per vehicle in September 2026, roughly 6.9% of MSRP, according to J.D. Power. That is the highest September level since 2020.
- Five years ago, in September 2021, incentives averaged $1,755. In September 2022 they fell to $936.
- The average new-car loan rate is about 6.66%, higher than 2021's 4.02%, but the lowest September reading since 2022.
- Year-end adds a second layer: model-year changeover, dealer volume targets and manufacturer-supported lease and finance programs.
- Most of this money is not advertised. It is reached through dealer programs and back-end incentives, which is where an auto broker earns the fee.
Are Year-End Car Deals Really Better in 2026?
Yes, and the numbers show it. J.D. Power's September forecasts give a clean year-over-year comparison of average manufacturer incentive spending per new vehicle:
- September 2021: $1,755 (4.0% of MSRP)
- September 2022: $936 (2.0% of MSRP)
- September 2023: $1,806 (3.7% of MSRP)
- September 2025: $3,116 (6.1% of MSRP)
- September 2026: $3,574 (6.9% of MSRP)
J.D. Power put it plainly in its September 2026 report: "Manufacturers are leaning harder into discounts to keep buyers in the market." Those are national averages across every brand. On the luxury and full-size SUV models our clients buy, the spread between a well-negotiated deal and a walk-in deal is often much wider.
Higher Interest Rates: Do They Cancel Out the Discount?
In most cases, no. A higher rate raises the monthly payment, but a larger discount lowers the amount being financed for the life of the loan or lease. And the rate a client actually pays is often not the national average.
Manufacturers frequently subsidize their own finance and lease programs through their captive lenders (Mercedes-Benz Financial Services, BMW Financial Services, Porsche Financial Services and others). Those programs can carry rates and money factors well below a bank loan, and they change every month. Pairing a subsidized program with a full discount is how our clients arrive at a lower total cost than they would have paid in 2021, even with today's rates.
For clients paying cash, the rate does not matter at all, and the discount is the entire story.
Is It Better to Lease or Buy a Car Right Now?
It depends on the car and the program, but right now leasing deserves a serious look. When a manufacturer is supporting a model, it often does so through the lease: a subsidized money factor, an elevated residual value, or lease cash that is not available on a purchase. For a client who will replace the car within the factory warranty period, that frequently produces the lower cost of ownership.
We run both structures for every client before they decide. Some months the purchase wins. Lately, on many German luxury models and full-size SUVs, the lease has been the stronger number. Our article on whether to buy or lease right now walks through the math in more detail.
Why Is Year-End the Best Time to Buy a New Car?
Three things line up between now and December 31:
- Model-year changeover. 2027 models are arriving, and dealers need to clear remaining 2026 inventory. Manufacturers often add money to the outgoing model year.
- Volume targets. Dealerships are paid manufacturer bonuses for hitting monthly, quarterly and annual sales objectives. In December, one more sale can be worth far more to a dealer than the gross profit on that car.
- Program timing. Year-end lease and finance programs are typically among the strongest of the year, and they expire on fixed dates.
The catch is that most of this is invisible to a retail buyer. The advertised special is rarely the best number available, and the back-end money a dealer receives is not shared unless someone on the buyer's side knows to ask for it.
How an Auto Broker Captures Year-End Pricing
A franchise dealer sells one brand and is paid more when the buyer pays more. eMotoring sits on the other side of the table. We are brand-agnostic, we work with dealerships across Southern California and beyond every month, and we know which incentives, rebates and dealer programs are in place on each make and model.
That allows us to bring our clients the best available number in the first proposal, with the full deal screen visible: the discount, the incentives applied, the rate or money factor, and every fee. There is no back-and-forth with a sales manager and no surprise in the finance office. The car is then delivered to the client's home or office. Our fee is flat and due at delivery, and it is backed by a money-back guarantee. See our pricing and how it works.
The discounting we have been able to deliver for our clients this fall has been exceptional across Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Land Rover and the full-size SUVs, and it is the strongest stretch we have seen in five years.
FAQs About Year-End Car Buying in 2026
Are car incentives higher in 2026 than in previous years?
Yes. J.D. Power forecast average incentive spending of about $3,574 per vehicle in September 2026, or 6.9% of MSRP, up 7.3% from a year earlier and the highest September level since 2020.
Are interest rates on new cars still high?
Higher than 2021, but easing. The average new-vehicle loan rate was about 6.66% in September 2026, the lowest September reading since 2022. Manufacturer-subsidized programs are often lower still.
When is the best time to buy a car at the end of the year?
The final weeks of December are typically strongest, because dealers are closing out annual targets and year-end programs expire. Starting the search in October or November gives us time to find the right car before inventory thins.
Does an auto broker in Orange County work with every brand?
eMotoring does. We are a licensed California dealer and broker based in Costa Mesa, serving Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Irvine and the rest of Coastal Orange County, and we work with any manufacturer.
Thinking About a New Car Before Year-End?
If a lease is coming due or there is a car you have been considering, now is the time to look at it. Send us the year, make and model you have in mind at scott@emotoring.com, and we will tell you what the market looks like for that car this month.
Scott Gladstone
eMotoring · (949) 522-5800 · scott@emotoring.com
Sources: J.D. Power-GlobalData U.S. Automotive Forecasts for September 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025 and 2026. Figures are J.D. Power forecasts published at the end of each month.